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, I slogged through 3 hours of NFL bloviating only to be rewarded by Chris Ballard strapping my patience to the rack and turning the crank to the "not tonight, dear" setting.Seriously,..."Last night, I slogged through 3 hours of NFL bloviating only to be rewarded by Chris Ballard strapping my patience to the rack and turning the crank to the “not tonight, dear” setting.Seriously, you can really damage a guy that way. In the 2019 NFL draft, the Colts traded away their 1st round pick to Washington for two 2nd rounders, one of which is payable next year. So, the immediate question is, was it a good trade? I don’t pretend to know anything about college football scouting. I’ve never even done a mock draft, but that’s probably because I have no access to any published collection of information, like some kind of a guide for the draft.Anyway, my point is that I have no idea how to judge a draft trade from a “team needs” perspective and I won’t even try.However, as a numbers guy, I can quantify the hell out of it and provide some context to the value given up and received in the deal. JIMMY JOHNSONI’ll start with the trade value chart made famous by former Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson.For those unfamiliar Indianapolis Colts Christine Michael Jersey
, Johnson created a table that assigned a value for each draft pick position and since earlier picks are far more valuable than later picks the values had a steep initial decline. I normalized the chart to decline from 100% so you can’t see the actual values, but according to this math, last night’s trade looks like this:.TradeValueTradeValueThe exact position of next year’s 2nd rounder is unknown, so I just used #46 as an estimate, which gives the overall trade a surplus of 180 points.That surplus is equivalent to a free mid-3rd round pick (#82).Woohoo!Of course, the 2020 draft is a year away and so that 2nd round pick should be discounted. I have seen suggestions of a full round discount which would make it a #78 pick worth only 200 points turning the 180 surplus into 60 point deficit.Boo! I think that a full round discount is far too high, but you get the idea of the uncertainty and sensitivity around the numbers. With such a steep decline, small differences can have large impacts.HISTORICAL TRADESIn Jimmy Johnson’s world, a #1 overall pick is worth five #31 picks and because that curve is so steep, it is been discounted by armchair GMs everywhere, who assume that no one uses it (and they are probably right).Rich Hill — managing editor of Pats Pulpit and all around stats guy — put together a chart based on the actual draft trades that GMs have performed. According to his data, this is the actual trade value curve: It’s actually a bit steeper in the first round than the JJ curve, which means that GMs are valuing early 1st round picks even higher.An overall #1 pick on this curve is worth almost 5-1/2#31 picks.That may seem like a steep price but keep in mind this is based on actual historical trades. According to Rich’s math (which uses a different scale), the Ballard trade is:.TradeValueTradeValueWithout discounting the 2020 pick, the trade provides a surplus equivalent to an early 4th rounder (#102) which I guess could be wiped out if you discount heavily (which I don’t). MASSEY AND THALER AND STUART (oh my)Wharton professor Cade Massey and Nobel Prize winning Economist Richard Thaler wrote a couple of papers that compared the market value of draft picks with the historical value of drafted players. Their findings were that Womens Christine Michael 2019 Jersey
, in general, GMs overpay to trade up into the first round.They utilized complex analysis using compensation and player performance to measure the value of each pick, which I certainly can’t recreate (let alone fully understand).However, I will leverage (steal) independent work done by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective to give you a simple analogy of what they did.Chase put together a draft value chart based on the career AV of the drafted player by pick position. As you can see the curve of actual player performance is not nearly as steep as the other curves. In the AV world, a #1 pick is worth only 2.7 #31 picks, almost half of Rich Hill’s actual trade curve.This means GMs value early round picks too much relative to what they get out of the players.It is partially this disparity in performance vs price that led Massey-Thaler to their conclusions.Now, I know a lot of you don’t like AV, but even if you use a different production measure like games started or games played or even snap counts, you will see very similar, shallower curves and they all show that it is probably better to trade out of the early first round as GMs are willing to give up more than they actually get. According to Chase’s model, Ballard’s trade looks like this:.TradeValueTradeValueThat surplus is worth a free #82 pick which is exactly the same as the Jimmy Johnson trade value. Hey! what gives?Shouldn’t the AV curve reward trading out of the first more than the other, much steeper curves? Unfortunately, the #26 pick was already too far down the curve.Basically, the slope between #26 and #46 on the JJ curve flattens to the point that it looks similar to the Chase AV curve.Crap, if only we had lost more games last year!CONCLUSIONSo overall Cheap Christine Michael Youth Jersey
, this trade looks good for the Colts, but it doesn’t look great like last year’s absolutely-crushed-it-and-took-them-to-the-cleaners trade with the Jets:..JJRHCS..JJRHCS.JJRHCS..JJRHCSHere are all of last night’s trades listed from the perspective of the team trading down.I think relative to the other trades, Ballard did well. All Trades.JJRHCS..JJRHCS.JJRHCS..JJRHCS Denico Autry: Proving the perfect investment for ColtsAutry describes himself: 'Rough. Hard-nosed. Wild kid. That’s what I bring to the table. I love it.'After ‘odd’ beginning, Colts’ D asserting itself under Matt Eberflus’ direction | CBS 4 - Indianapolis News, Weather, Traffic and Sports | WTTVINDIANAPOLIS, Ind. – Long before we’ve gotten to this point, long before a substandard defense vacated the NFL’s statistical cellar and morphed into a top-11 unit, long before Matt Eberflus instilled a do-it-my-way-or-else mindset, Frank Reich needed to figure out a few things about his inheri...Darius Leonard Named To NFL.com’s All-Defensive Rookie TeamNFL.com’s Chris Wesseling has released his 2018 NFL All-Defensive Rookie Team, a collection that includes his current “choice” for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Indianapolis Colts linebacker Darius Leonard.Frank Reich's ever-evolving Colts offense puts defenses in a bindFrank Reich's offense, while rooted in the Peyton Manning-led Colts offenses of the past, is constantly growing and evolving.Kravitz: A healthy, rejuvenated Andrew Luck prospers with lots of help from the Colts’ rebuilt O-line – The AthleticThis cannot be overstated: For the first time since Luck came on the scene in 2012 Womens Khari Willis 2019 Jersey
, he has a strong offensive line.Peyton Manning: Andrew Luck can 'make all the throws' in comeback season - Indianapolis Colts Blog- ESPNManning gives a breakdown of Luck's performace in a victory over the Texans in the latest episode of the ESPN+ show Detail.How Many Pro Bowlers Should The Colts Have In 2018? | 1070 the FanNext week, the NFL will announce the Pro Bowl teams for the 2018 season. How many Pro Bowlers will the Colts have this year?How do the Cowboys match up against Indianapolis and former coach Matt Eberflus? – The AthleticEberflus is going to dare the Cowboys to throw the ball, all while sending controlled blitzes and mixing up coverages. How can Dallas counterattack? We have a few ideas.Colts Have Options At Right Guard; Clayton Geathers ReturnsWith starter Mark Glowinski out for a second straight day with an ankle injury, the Indianapolis Colts have multiple options at the right guard position should they need them this Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.Colts Notebook: T.Y. Hilton Missed Second Straight Day Of Practice | 1070 the FanThe Colts (7-6) were back to practice on Thursday afternoon, with two starters missing the first two days of on-field work.Where Do The Colts Rank? Week 15 (2018)Take a weekly look at where the standout Indianapolis Colts units and individual players rank among their AFC and NFL peers heading into Week 15 of the 2018 season.2018 Colts Fantasy Preview: Colts/Cowboys, Week 15The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the National Football League, but the Indianapolis Colts are at home and possess one of the league’s most potent offenses. Here is what to expect from the Colts players in your Week 15 fantasy football lColts might be included in NFL’s international series – stay tuned | CBS 4 - Indianapolis News, Weather, Traffic and Sports | WTTVINDIANAPOLIS, Ind.-- A passport might be required if fans intend on attending every Indianapolis Colts’ road game next season. The NFL announced Wednesday its International series in 2019 will expand to five games, four in London and one in Mexico City.Saints releasing Erik Swoope after claiming him – ProFootballTalkErik Swoope didn't even have time to get a few good meals. According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Saints are releasing the tight end they claimed off waivers yesterday. Swoope has been dealing with knee problems this year, but when well, he has shown flashes of playmaking skill.COLTS MEDIAPeyton Manning: Breaking Down Andrew Luck - WatchESPNWatch Peyton Manning: Breaking Down Andrew Luck on WatchESPN.